Hansen Experiment Shows
Chaos Trumps Global Warming

by Adrian Vance 

        The November 27, 1997 issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research includes a research paper that should have ended the anthropogenic global warming movement.  Dr. James Hansen and 42 co-authors, all employees of Goddard Space Sciences Institute under Director Hanson, published a paper entitled, "Forcings and Chaos in Interannual and Decadal Research," in the Journal of Geophysical Research.  It describes a failed attempt to find causes Hansen dubbed "forcings" of climate change among the chaotic components of climate. 

        The 43 authors wrote, "Scientists and lay persons have a predilection for deterministic explanations of climate variations. However, climate can vary chaotically, without any “forcings,” the slightest alteration of initial or boundary conditions.  Future weather is inherently unpredictable. This behavior is the reality of the nonlinear fundamental equations governing the dynamics of such a system."  It would be more accurate to say all factors and systems interact in so many ways it is not possible to make predictions.  In this time serious climate modeling is impossible, ridiculous or criminal. 

        The authors' experiment took three major computer modeling systems for climate and ran them with no forcings for the period 1979-1996, then compared the result to the observed average annual temperature of the stratosphere, troposphere (lower atmosphere), and sea surface.  Average temperature was chosen because it is a meaningful product of the effects. 

        Then they added forcings, external perturbations, to see if the models were closer to observed values.  If they did, they would claim forcings have an effect independent of chaos.  The five forcings included: stratospheric aerosols from volcanoes, greenhouse gases, ozone depletion, the solar cycle and the heat imbalance postulated to be due to the effect of greenhouse gases before 1979. 

        While the experiment worked to some degree for the stratosphere and the sea surface, where air is thin, dry and simple, it failed in the troposphere, where climate changes are greater.  For the most sophisticated system, the unforced case yields a correlation with observation of +0.26, a positive, but poor correlation.  A correlation of +0.26 is not a probability, but a relative ranking on a scale where +1.0 equals full correlation and -1.0 is complete disagreement.  Decimal correlations are relative and subjective not quantitative and objective like percentages in probability. 

        Adding forcings in the order above yielded correlations of +0.23, +0.34, +0.34, +0.26 and +0.13, respectively.  In fact, the only model to exceed a +0.50 correlation is the troposphere in which the unforced mode hits +0.59.  When forcing is added, the correlation dips to +0.19, much less. 

        The data shows “climate is chaotic and effects of long-term forcings, like “greenhouse gases,” are essentially unpredictable and undiscernible." 

        The objective to confirm climate is warming is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases independent of natural climate variations that Hansen and his 42 co-authors tried to demonstrate failed. 

        These computer models were used at Kyoto to confidently forecast the coming century’s climate to justify deindustrializing the United States.  The 1900 census of pre-industrial America showed it could support 70 million people in a horse-drawn, mule plowed, sail served economy.  What happens to 230 million people?  They starve to say nothing of what happens in most of the rest of the world:  Death, destruction, disease, revolt, disaster and environmental destruction all in the name of theory discredited by its’ author and documented in a publication few read.  What you don’t know can kill you. 

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